2025: The Enduring Pursuit of Returns
As we close the month of October 2025, the market continues its intricate movement of volatility and opportunity. This month served as a potent reminder that the path to durable, long-term returns is rarely a straight line. It is in these moments of fluctuation that our philosophy at Binary Capital is not just tested but proven. Our unwavering commitment to identifying and supporting the extraordinary outlier companies that drive the vast majority of market returns remains a focus for us.
October was a month of apparent contradictions. We witnessed sharp market swings, including a significant single-day drop during the month, driven by geopolitical narratives, only to be followed by a robust recovery. The S&P 500, for its part, rose approximately 2% for the month, contributing to a year-to-date return of 16%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also saw a significant climb, finishing the month up 4% on the back of strong performance from technology leaders. This resilience in the face of headwinds is a testament to the underlying strength of the innovation economy and the focus on ‘AI’ trends.
On the macroeconomic front, the global growth outlook continues to be a subject of major focus. The IMF projects a slight moderation in global growth from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025. In the US, economic indicators suggest a strong start to the fourth quarter, though with some signs of downward revisions in hiring. We are also seeing a revised US GDP growth outlook for 2025 and 2026 to 1.9% and 2.3% respectively. This mixed economic picture underscores the importance of a selective, fundamental thesis-driven investment approach. Be focused at all times.
In a market characterised by such “noise,” our focus remains squarely on the “signal.” We do not engage in market timing, nor do we chase short-term trends. Our conviction is that an increasingly small number of extraordinary outlier companies are the true engines of long-term investment creation. Our singular objective is to identify, invest in, and provide patient, long-duration capital to these strategies for these visionary teams and their world-changing companies.
We believe that many mediocre companies are alike; each exceptional company is exceptional in its own way. This necessitates a different kind of investment approach – one that is unbounded by arbitrary sector and investment constraints. Innovation and scale are not separate categories, but rather many points on the same exponential journey. By embracing this core truth – particularly nowadays as the distinction between public and private markets becomes increasingly blurred – we can capitalise on opportunities others may structurally miss. We see strategies for the long-term that others only see within a short-term lens.
Our investment philosophy is accountable to a question: “Can we discern which companies/strategies/themes have the potential to redefine entire industries, evolve markets and push the boundaries?
To enable this, we are a long-duration, multi-stage and sector-agnostic, with a corporate-growth-oriented focus, that focuses on public markets with connections in industry and academia. As investors, our approach positions us to detect effects in disruptive technologies and business models early by connecting the dots between sectors and stages, supported by the resolve required for long-term thesis to play out.
The Principles Guiding Our Investment Thinking:
While the formula for innovation remains elusive by its very nature, our practice is grounded in a repeatable process of primary thinking, guided by three core principles:
A Capacity to think: The companies and founders who achieve massive scale are never confined to a single identity, end-market, or outcome. Their success is defined by continuous evolution. We seek out and support those who look to imagine beyond the immediate horizon, constantly adapting, evolving and reinventing. We are always thinking.
An ability to understand Risk: Truly innovative companies are never stable. Their growth often stems from significant market shifts, frequently driven by initial doubts from the consensus. Investing in these companies needs a long-term perspective, one that remains unmoved by market noise and holds deep conviction in an enduring vision, even when the path is volatile.
Seeking long-term significant Returns: Growth, by its very essence, is not linear; it compounds. We are relentlessly focused on identifying companies where this growth is not only strong but also reinforcing. Through this disciplined approach, we aim to reap the benefits of a powerful advantage: time duration. It’s about letting the power of compounding work.
The dynamics of October have only reinforced our conviction. While others may be distracted by the short-term gyrations, we remain focused on the long-term, compounding power of the exceptional. We continue to believe that the greatest opportunities for asymmetrical returns lie in those companies with the vision and the fortitude to not just navigate the future, but to create it.
At Binary Capital, our investment strategy is anchored by a conviction-diversified approach, driven by the core thesis previously outlined. We believe that performance and consistency are the ultimate measures of success, and we are dedicated to delivering both now and in the future.
October proved to be a period of strong performance across our strategies, with returns ranging from +2% to +4%. This level of return is highly competitive, positioning Binary Capital in the top percentile of our peer group over both the short and long term. We remain steadfast in our commitment to maintaining this high standard of consistent, top-tier performance.
Our ability to navigate the investment markets will determine whether we do this successfully or not, staying true to our investment philosophy, our investing thinking and having that real edge in investing – time horizon.
We always focus on the main thing: identify the most important objective and give it our complete and unrelenting focus.
